With Labor Day weekend over, our thoughts turn to fall, even if temperatures may not be cooperating where you live. And fall means thinking about upcoming furniture markets and design shows — and planning for 2025.

All that in mind, I was struck by a recent blog from Pamela Danziger, an author, founder of Unity Marketing, and an expert in luxury markets and the behaviors of affluent consumers, who is based in Stevens, Pennsylvania. (Editor’s note: For further reading about Pamela Danziger and the state of the luxury market, visit here.)

Danziger notes that the Washington, D.C.-based Affluent Consumer Research Co. has been seeing worrisome trends in affluent Americans’ spending plans, with the number of consumers planning to spend more on luxury goods declining monthly and the number planning to spend the same or less on high-end items gradually rising. (The research firm weights its sample toward consumers earning more than $250,000 a year and who have $1 million or more in investable assets beyond their primary home.)

In the company’s most recent survey, “one-third of those interviewed said they expect to spend more on luxury over the next 12 months”, Danziger says, adding “(but) that can’t offset the 41% of affluents who plan to spend the same and the 35% who expect to spend less.”

Overall, the affluent consumers surveyed feel OK about their own financial situations but aren’t confident in the U.S. economy and fear a looming recession.

Affluent Consumer Research Co. isn’t the only one seeing a downturn. “The brands that are more dependent on high-income shoppers are holding up better, but still, high-income spending is down, dropping by 5% in the second quarter 2024, the lowest point since second-quarter 2020,” Michael Gunter of Consumer Edge, a New York-based firm that tracks global consumer spending, tells Danziger.

And Danziger points to several luxury apparel and accessories companies reporting recent financial downturns, including Capri Holdings Ltd. (Versace, Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors), LVMH (Louis Vuitton, Dior, Celine, Fendi, Marc Jacobs and others), Ralph Lauren and Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman).

What’s ahead for home?

While interior designers have stayed fairly busy, the overall furniture industry has experienced a rough patch following the consumer buying spree during the first years of the Covid-19 pandemic.

And a tight housing market — with both high asking prices and high interest rates — hasn’t helped.

Home, retail and hospitality brand RH reported that, when compared to the same period in 2023, both its net income and gross profit dipped in its fiscal first quarter, which ended May 4. (The company is expected to report its latest financials this week.)

RH Chair and CEO Gary Friedman remains bullish about the company’s future but acknowledged in that earnings report “we do expect the constantly changing outlook regarding monetary policy will continue to weigh on the housing market through the second half of 2024 and possibly into 2025.”

Although the statistics were not focused on luxury goods, on Tuesday our sister publication Home News Now reported that new orders for residential furniture in June were down 6% from June 2023 and down 8% from May.

Mixed messages

The topsy-turvy, contentious upcoming elections are unlikely to give consumers — affluent or otherwise — a lot of confidence to spend in the next few months.

But balancing that out are indications that Fed leaders will cut interest rates during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Sept. 17-18. That could be the start of a much-needed loosening of the housing market.

I want to believe that the economy will be humming in 2025, that we’ll continue to avoid a recession, and that interest rates will free up the housing market and spending in other categories.

But it’s perhaps better to plan with lower expectations and be ready to adjust if business is better than you forecast. That means careful, thoughtful shopping at upcoming markets and judicious strategizing for 2025. And we’ve got more information that will help you do that. Later this month, the Home News Now group of publications will start publishing the latest round of Consumer Insights Now research, detailing consumers’ plans for buying home furnishings and other shopping trends. Stay tuned!